UNRAVELING PATTERNS IN 9329 PREMIER LEAGUE FOOTBALL MATCHES
1.0 Introduction
The English Premier League (EPL) is widely regarded as one of the most competitive and popular football leagues globally. Established in 1992, the league features 20 teams that compete annually, with each team playing 38 matches—19 at home and 19 away. The EPL's appeal extends far beyond the United Kingdom, attracting a massive international fanbase due to its high level of competition, world-class players, and unpredictable match outcomes.
This report presents an in-depth analysis of goals scored over time in the Premier League. The dataset utilized for this analysis was sourced from Kaggle and contains comprehensive data from 9,329 matches, spanning multiple EPL seasons and involving 48 distinct teams. This analysis aims to uncover trends, compare performances across different time periods, and provide insights into the factors influencing goal-scoring outcomes.
Terms description
| SN | Terms | Meaning |
| 1 | Date | The date when the match was played |
| 2 | Season | The football season in which the match took place (usually spans across two years, e.g., 2023-24) |
| 3 | HomeTeam | The team playing at their home stadium |
| 4 | AwayTeam | The visiting team |
| 5 | FTH Goals, | Full Time Home Goals (total goals scored by home team at the end of the match) |
| 6 | FTA Goals | Full Time Away Goals (total goals scored by away team at the end of the match) |
| 7 | FT Result | Full Time Result (typically shown as H for home win, A for away win, D for draw) |
| 8 | HTH Goals | Half Time Home Goals (goals scored by home team at half-time) |
| 9 | HTA Goals | Half Time Away Goals (goals scored by away team at half-time) |
| 10 | HT Result | Half Time Result (H for home team leading, A for away team leading, D for draw at half-time) |
| 11 | Referee | Name of the match official/referee |
| 12 | H Shots | Total shots attempted by the home team |
| 13 | A Shots | Total shots attempted by the away team |
| 14 | H SOT | Home Shots on Target (shots by home team that were on goal) |
| 15 | A SOT | Away Shots on Target (shots by away team that were on goal) |
| 16 | H Fouls, | Number of fouls committed by the home team |
| 17 | A Fouls | Number of fouls committed by the away team |
| 18 | H Corners | Corner kicks awarded to the home team |
| 19 | A Corners | Corner kicks awarded to the away team |
| 20 | H Yellow | Yellow cards shown to home team players |
| 21 | A Yellow | Yellow cards shown to away team players |
| 22 | H Red, | Red cards shown to home team players |
| 23 | A Red | Red cards shown to away team players |
| 24 | Display_Order | A numerical ordering system for displaying the matches (likely used for sorting or presentation purposes) |
| 25 | League | The competition or league in which the match was played |
| 26 | Big Six | This includes Arsenal, Chelsea, Man United, Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham |
2.0 Data Preparation
For data cleaning, we converted the data type of the "goals" column to numeric, performed data transformation by removing blank columns, and changed the data type using locale settings for proper formatting.
Figure 1: Table View of EPL Dataset
3.0 Exploratory Data Analysis
Our analysis is based on a comprehensive dataset of 9,329 matches featuring 48 distinct teams, covering the period from 2000 to January 2025. Notably, Arsenal played 467 matches during this timeframe, underscoring their consistent participation and significant presence in the league.
Several intriguing insights emerged from our study. For instance, referee M Dean stands out as the most frequently assigned official, and he is also responsible for issuing the highest number of yellow cards, suggesting a notably strict officiating style. Additionally, the data reveals a clear home-field advantage: home teams win approximately 45.5% of the matches, while there is a 24.7% probability that any given match ends in a draw.
Figure 2: Snippet of EPL Analysis Dashboard
A closer look at the 2010/11 season—a season that recorded the highest number of goals—uncovered further interesting patterns. Focusing on the "big six teams" during that season, we discovered that Manchester United maintained an impressive home record, not losing any match played on their home ground.
We delved deeper by conducting a match-by-match analysis across all teams and discovered that 14,331 goals were scored at home, out of a total of 25,333 goals in the EPL. A closer examination of the Big Six's head-to-head contests reveals that Liverpool boasts the highest goal-scoring chance at home. When facing other Big Six teams at home, Tottenham's goal tally surpassed only by those of Arsenal and Manchester City.
Figure 3: Time series analysis of goals scored by the “Big-six”
Overtime we observed that the highest goals were scored by the “big Six” in premier league between 2000 to 2025 seasons, these teams' performance will be our major focus in treating the graph above. From the above line graphs we can see that the relationship between the goals scored by the “Big Six” in the home graph is more competitive when compared to that of the Away graph. This is as a result of the large number of goals scored by each home team from 2000 to 2025, each year showing the disparity in their goal performance.
Figure 4: Comparison of Chelsea and Man United shots on targets
Using Man United as a case study we can see that in 2010 they had a full time goals result of 55 while at home but only had 25 goals scored while away, hence showing that there is a higher chance of a team winning at home than away. In addition, when comparing both graphs we can see that for the Away graph we notice the lines are a bit clustered compared to the home graph showing that the away matches are less competitive. This makes the home graph a more suitable tool for interpreting the full time performance of the ‘Big Six’
Figure 5: Home goal comparison between Chelsea and Man United
Chelsea and Man United fans have been going at it for a while now on which team is the best. From the chart above, Chelsea have the most home goals with a total tally of 60 goals in the year 2010 as compared to Manchester United with a total tally of 55 goals that same year. Although both teams can be said to have had their best home run in the year 2010, Chelsea can be said to be the team with the most attacking threat at Home as opposed to Manchester United in 2010.
Figure 6: Away goal comparison between Chelsea and Man United
Between the years 2000-2005, Chelsea started with 28 goals in 2000, peaking at 45 in 2002, while Manchester United had 28 in 2000 and peaked at 47 in 2001. Both teams showed an increase in goals during this period, with Manchester United showing a more consistent upward trend. Manchester United’s goals varied from 2005 to 2010, rising from 32 in 2005 to 43 in 2006 while Chelsea fell from 43 in 2005 to 39 in 2006. Though there were minor differences in the peaks and troughs, both teams' fluctuation patterns were identical. The same can be said for the Away chart having a fluctuation with Chelsea peaking at 41 goals in 2008 and Man-U at 40 goals in 2012 and 2013.
4.0 Data Insights:
- Over the years, there's been a visible competition in terms of home goals between Chelsea and Manchester United, with both teams experiencing peaks and troughs at somewhat similar times.
- The highest recorded home goals were by Chelsea in 2010 with 60 goals, showcasing an exceptional season. Also, the highest recorded away goals were by Chelsea in 2008 with 41 goals.
- Between 2003 and 2019, the total number of away goals scored by Chelsea (FTA Goals) showed an increasing trend, rising by 1. However, starting in 2021, there was a significant shift in this trend, leading to a sharp decline of 33 goals.
- Starting in 2021, ManCity away goals saw a sharp decline, dropping by 96.23% (51 goals) over four years
- Man United has the best home run making up to 18.95% of the total count of full time results at home.
5.0 Recommendations
- Maximize Home Advantage – Since home teams win 45.5% of matches, teams should strengthen home-game tactics, use crowd support, and implement strategies that increase goal-scoring efficiency at home.
- Improve Away Performance – Teams score fewer goals away, making away matches less competitive. A more defensive or counter-attacking approach can help minimize losses and improve results.
- Analyze Chelsea’s 2010 Home Strategy – Chelsea recorded 60 home goals in 2010, the highest in the dataset. Studying their tactical approach could help teams enhance their home attacking efficiency.
- Strategic Squad Building – Arsenal’s 467 matches highlight the importance of long-term squad stability. Teams should invest in youth development, squad depth, and recruitment strategies to maintain competitiveness over decades.
- Use Data-Driven Decision Making – Clubs should leverage data analytics to identify performance trends, optimize training regimens, and make informed tactical decisions for both home and away matches.
6.0 Conclusion
The data reveals a strong home advantage, with 14,331 home goals out of 25,333 total goals, emphasizing better team performance at home. Chelsea dominated in 2010, scoring 60 home goals, surpassing Manchester United’s 55 that same year. Away matches proved less competitive as seen in Man United’s 2010 Stats (55 home goals vs. 25 away goals). Among Big Six clashes, Liverpool had the highest home goal-scoring probability, showcasing their attacking strength. Lastly, Chelsea and Manchester United followed similar trends, peaking in 2010 but experiencing a post-2013 decline (Chelsea: 41 goals, Man Utd: 28).
Name of participants:
Okpere Jeffrey
Osahon Aigbe
Ebruba Christian IDE
Hossana Best
Oghenekevwe Kupa Uwanogho
Ailenokhuoria Verity Itua
Adano Peter
Mr Eghosa
